JWSS - Journal of Water and Soil Science

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Soleimanpour S M, Rahmati O, Shadfar S, Enayati M. Modeling Gully Erosion Development Using Random Forest and Artificial Neural Network Models in the Mahurmilati Watershed of Fars Province. jwss 2026; 30 (1) :49-64
URL: http://jstnar.iut.ac.ir/article-1-4479-en.html

Gully erosion is one of the most important types of water erosion. Since the amount of soil loss due to this erosion is directly related to environmental factors, the amount of soil loss due to each gully can be modeled based on environmental conditions. According to the high ability of machine learning models based on artificial intelligence to analyze environmental information, in addition to determining soil loss due to gully erosion, modeling has been carried out using two random forest models, and artificial neural networks and evaluating their efficiency in the Mahurmilati watershed located in the southwest of Fars province in this study. The dimensional parameters of 70 gullies were measured over four years (2021-2024), and the volume and weight of soil lost were calculated. 15 environmental factors were selected as predictive variables, and modeling was performed with a cross-validation approach using these two models, and the accuracy of the models was evaluated using quantitative criteria. The amount of soil loss in gullies during the study period was 15300.94 tons. The accuracy evaluation of the models showed that the random forest model had better performance based on the coefficient of determination (R2=0.66-0.73). Also, this model had the lowest value in terms of the RSR error index evaluation criterion (RSR=0.66-1.03) and the highest accuracy. In terms of the fit evaluation index (D), the random forest model also had the highest fit between the observational and forecast data and had the highest value of this index (D=0.83), and therefore, it was introduced as the superior model for predicting soil loss due to gully erosion in this watershed.