JWSS - Journal of Water and Soil Science

Mendeley  

Zotero  

Ramezani Etedali H, Ahmadi M. Wheat Production Simulation Using Sentinel 2 Images and Machine Learning Techniques. jwss 2025; 29 (2) :15-31
URL: http://jstnar.iut.ac.ir/article-1-4436-en.html

change, accurately predicting wheat production is essential for developing precision agriculture. Remote sensing enables the indirect prediction of crop production before harvest. This research investigates the application of the random forest method and support vector regression for simulating wheat production across ten selected farms in Qazvin Plain from 2019 to 2020, employing NDVI, MSAVI, and EVI vegetation indices. Sentinel 2 satellite data was utilized for the vegetation indices. Production data for the ten wheat fields was obtained from the Agricultural Jihad Organization of Qazvin Province. Evaluation of support vector regression and random forest to assess both the observed and simulated wheat production data was conducted using R2, MBE, RMSE, and MAE statistics. To explore the simulation of wheat production using vegetation indices, seven methods were defined: methods 1 to 3 examine each index separately; methods 4 to 6 focus on binary combinations of the indices; and method 7 considers the combined effects of all three indices. The support vector regression model provided good estimates of wheat production in all methods, except methods one and four, in the test phase, with a coefficient of determination of more than 0.98 and a low RMSE. The random forest model showed significant results in all methods except methods two and six during the test phase, achieving a 95% probability (P-value=0.00) with a coefficient of determination greater than 0.8. Overall, this research highlights the importance and potential of machine learning techniques for timely crop production prediction as a strong foundation for regional food security.