Volume 26, Issue 4 (Winiter 2023)                   jwss 2023, 26(4): 203-216 | Back to browse issues page


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Hayatzadeh M, Eshghizadeh M. Flood Modeling of Marvast Basin Influenced by Climate and Cultivation Pattern Changes. jwss 2023; 26 (4) :203-216
URL: http://jstnar.iut.ac.ir/article-1-4188-en.html
Ardakan University , mhayatzadeh@ardakan.ac.ir
Abstract:   (1144 Views)
The land use change as well as changes in climatic parameters such as temperature increase affect many natural processes such as soil erosion and sediment production, floods, and degradation of physical and chemical properties of soil. Therefore, it is necessary to pay attention to different aspects of the effect of these changes in studies and macro decisions of the country. In the present study, the SWAT conceptual model was used to test and analyze the existing scenarios in the Marvast basin. After calibrating the model, the two scenarios were tested. The first scenario is in the field of agricultural management and conversion of gardens to agricultural lands and the second scenario is a 0.5-degree increase in temperature by assuming other conditions are constant. The calibration and validation results of the model with the Nash-Sutcliffe test showed 0.66 and 0.68 respectively, which indicate the acceptable performance of the model in the study area. Then, the results of using two scenarios of land use change and heating, especially in recent years showed the effect of 30 percent of the climate scenario on the increase of flooding in the basin. The scenario of changing the use of garden lands to agriculture in two cases of 20% and 50% change of use of 10% and 12% was added to the flooding of the basin. The results indicate that in similar areas of the study area which is located in a dry climate zone, a possible increase in temperature can have a significant effect on flooding in the basin. However, the indirect impact of the human factor in increasing greenhouse gases and flooding in the basin should not be ignored.
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Type of Study: Research | Subject: Ggeneral
Received: 2021/07/30 | Accepted: 2022/06/25 | Published: 2023/03/1

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