Volume 14, Issue 53 (fall 2010)                   JWSS 2010, 14(53): 28-38 | Back to browse issues page

XML Persian Abstract Print

Download citation:
BibTeX | RIS | EndNote | Medlars | ProCite | Reference Manager | RefWorks
Send citation to:

Ashofteh P, Massah Bouani A R. Impact of Climate Change on Maximum Discharges: Case Study of Aidoghmoush Basin, East Azerbaijan. JWSS. 2010; 14 (53) :28-38
URL: http://jstnar.iut.ac.ir/article-1-1330-en.html
, parisa_ashofteh@yahoo.com
Abstract:   (24733 Views)
Climate change has different impacts on extreme events such as flood and drought. However, in Iran there are few researches about the impacts. This research was aimed to investigate maximum annual discharge (magnitude and frequency) that may occur due to climate change in Aidoghmoush Basin during 2040-2069 (2050s). At first, monthly temperature and precipitation data of HadCM3 model under the SRES emission scenario, namely A2 , was provided for the basin. Then, these data were downscaled spatially and temporally to Aidoghmoush basin by proportional and change factor downscaling methods. Results showed that the temperature increases (between 1.5 to 4) and the precipitation varies (30 to 40 percent) in 2040-2069 compared with baseline period (1971-2000). A semi-conceptual model (IHACRES) for simulation of daily runoff was calibrated. Downscaled temperature and Precipitation for 2050s were introduced to IHACRES and daily runoff was simulated for the future. Probability distribution was fitted to maximum annual discharge series and the maximum discharge regime of the future was compared with the baseline. Results indicated that climate change affects Maximum discharge in the regime of the basin. Also, the analysis showed that the intensity of maximum discharges for the time period less than 50 does not show any significant difference but by increasing the return period, the intensity increases in future periods. Moreover, it was shown that the probability of maximum discharges with constant intensity will decrease in the future compared to the baseline.
Full-Text [PDF 356 kb]   (7921 Downloads)    
Type of Study: Research | Subject: Ggeneral
Received: 2010/12/27 | Published: 2010/10/15

Add your comments about this article : Your username or Email:

Rights and permissions
Creative Commons License This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

© 2022 CC BY-NC 4.0 | JWSS - Isfahan University of Technology

Designed & Developed by : Yektaweb