Volume 16, Issue 59 (spring 2012)                   jwss 2012, 16(59): 59-74 | Back to browse issues page

XML Persian Abstract Print

Download citation:
BibTeX | RIS | EndNote | Medlars | ProCite | Reference Manager | RefWorks
Send citation to:

S. Dodangeh, J. Abedi Koupai, S. A. Gohari. Application of Time Series Modeling to Investigate Future Climatic Parameters Trend for Water Resources Management Purposes. jwss 2012; 16 (59) :59-74
URL: http://jstnar.iut.ac.ir/article-1-2198-en.html
, koupai@cc.iut.ac.ir
Abstract:   (24348 Views)
Due to the important role of climatic parameters such as radiation, temperature, precipitation and evaporation rate in water resources management, this study employed time series modeling to forecast climatic parameters. After normality test of the parameters, nonparametric Mann-Kendall test was used in order to do trend analysis of data at P-value<0.05. Relative humidity and evaporation (with significant trend, -0.348 and -0.42 cm, respectively), as well as air temperature, wind speed, and sunshine were selected for time series modeling. Considering the Autocorrelation function (ACF) and Partial Autocorrelation function (PACF) and trend of data, appropriate models were fitted. The significance of the parameters of the selected models was examined by SE and t statistics, and both stationarity and invertibility conditions of Autoregressive (AR) and Moving average (MA) were also tested. Then, model calibration was carried out using Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Anderson- Darling and Rayan-Joiner. The selected ARIMA models are ARIMA(0,0,11)*(0,0,1), ARIMA(2,0,4)*(1,1,0), ARIMA(4,0,0)*(0,1,1), ARIMA (1,0,1)*(0,1,1), ARIMA (1,0,0)*(0,1,1) for relative humidity, evaporation, air temperature, wind speed and sunshine, respectively. The fitted models were then used to forecast the parameters. Finally, trend analysis of forecasted data was done in order to investigate the climate change. This study emphasizes efficiency of time series modeling in water resources studies in order to forecast climatic parameters.
Full-Text [PDF 585 kb]   (13778 Downloads)    
Type of Study: Research | Subject: Ggeneral
Received: 2012/07/4 | Published: 2012/04/15

Add your comments about this article : Your username or Email:

Rights and permissions
Creative Commons License This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

© 2024 CC BY-NC 4.0 | JWSS - Isfahan University of Technology

Designed & Developed by : Yektaweb